A nation once again holds its breath.
As next week's runoff election approaches, the future of Zimbabwe hangs in the balance. A victory by opposition leader Morgan Tsvangirai means renewed hope for a country torn apart by decades of corruption. Another stolen election by President Robert Mugabe can only lead to more instability and violence.
Most world leaders recognize these stakes. Calls for a peaceful transfer of power continually grow louder, only to fall on deaf ears in Harare. Ironically —and unfortunately for Zimbabwe's 12 million people — the one man who might actually convince Mugabe to step down, South African president Thabo Mbeki, is also the only man unwilling to speak up.
Mbeki's allegiance to Mugabe is unwavering, despite the Zimbabwe leader's transformation from liberator to dictator. Their friendship dates to the 1980s, when a young Mbeki's task was to improve relations between South Africa's then banned African National Congress exiles and Mugabe's ZANU-PF party. (Both fought white rule and won.)
Since then, Mbeki has admired Mugabe, even as he destroyed Zimbabwe's economy, instilled fear in citizens, attacked rivals and alienated the international community.
"There is an immense respect among people who have fought against the struggle, both apartheid and colonialism," explains University of Toronto politics professor Richard Simeon, who has lectured at the University of Cape Town. "Mugabe was highly respected as a freedom fighter."
This mutual respect gives Mbeki political clout in Zimbabwe, something few outsiders have.
Mbeki's peculiar declaration that "there is no crisis" following Zimbabwe's initial election round in March — even as Mugabe's henchmen filled the streets after Tsvangirai received more votes than the president and a third candidate — raised eyebrows around the world.
"South Africa was the one country that had the opportunity to bring pressure on him," Simeon says. "(Mugabe) would have reacted to that more than pressure from any other source."
This support of Mugabe only adds to missteps that have left the South African president's reputation in tatters. Mbeki is well known abroad for his absurd declarations that HIV does not cause AIDS and that antiretrovirals are poison. This while nearly 1,000 of his citizens die of AIDS every day.
Under Mbeki, South Africa's impressive economic growth has done little to ease poverty, with nearly half its population earning only 7 per cent of its income. Unemployment is at 24 per cent.
This led to an embarrassing party defeat for Mbeki in December, when Jacob Zuma was elected the ANC's leader and Mbeki's likely successor as president.
If Mbeki is going to restore his reputation, next week's runoff in Zimbabwe is a good place to start.
If he can convince Mugabe to forego any flawed results and step down — or at least lessen his grip on power — Mbeki may be able to repair his legacy. Zuma is openly critical of Mugabe so there is little chance he would have the same influence in Zimbabwe. The onus is on Mbeki to act, and to act now.
South Africa is the region's most developed nation, meaning it has a duty to promote democracy. Without that leadership, Zimbabweans will continue to suffer under the rule of a notorious African despot.
More post-election turmoil would mean even more refugees pouring into South Africa, and continued instability in an area that cannot afford to be unstable.
So Mbeki's continent needs him. He has long promoted African solutions to African problems. This is his chance to ensure just that.
Craig and Marc Kielburger are children's rights activist.
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Jean-Louis Kayitenkore
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