6/22/08

Only a new Constitution will save Kenya

Story by MAKAU MUTUA | Letter from New York
Publication Date: 6/22/2008

Kenya lost its lustre around the world because of the near collapse of the state after the December 2007 elections. These days when I meet Nigerians, Congolese, Sudanese, Liberians and Africans from other traumatised states, I get the sense they sympathise with Kenya because of its recent woes.

But I am afraid that they also give me the impression of wry satisfaction that Kenyans are no longer special – that now we are just another godforsaken African state. This is infuriating, to say the least. For how can fellow Africans take perverse pleasure in our demise?

Lick our wounds

But rather than lick our wounds, there is only one cure for our misfortunes. We need to write the best constitution in Africa. That is why Kenya's leaders should not make a new constitution a phantom for personal struggles.

I am convinced that only a monumental achievement – such as the most democratic constitution in the world – can return Kenya to its once enviable status. And this must be done in less than a year.

Nor should it be punctuated by political stupidity and intellectual myopia, the two cancers that torpedoed the last attempt after nearly two decades of Sisyphean efforts and billions of scarce shillings.

For once, the two incumbent gods of politics in Kenya – President Mwai Kibaki and Prime Minister Raila Odinga – must agree to give the country a charter that will make Kenya one nation. To do so, they must abandon narrow and vested interests and whip their aides into line.

I am not naïve and know that Mr Odinga has different personal interests at stake than Mr Kibaki.  Even so, both men should not factor their own individual interests into the process.

Only one thing should guide them – the national interest.  President Kibaki is not eligible to run again for a third term but he must now focus on his legacy.

Theoretically, this fact alone makes him more flexible and magnanimous than Mr Odinga.  But this is only true if he is not captive to his courtiers who want to manipulate a succession to their advantage.

If the statements of some of Mr Kibaki's ostensible supporters are any guide, he will be brought under pressure to adopt a regional – as opposed to a national – agenda in the twilight of his career.

Mr Kibaki must resist with every fibre of his body all the nativist and tribal proclivities of some of his supporters. In any case, I have the strong feeling that his supporters do not really speak for the majority of folks in Central and Eastern provinces.

The worst thing that President Kibaki could do as he exits the stage is to leave Kenya more balkanised than it is today.

He must reject the temptation of ratifying the emerging Kikuyu-Kamba alliance because such a pact will simply harden the Luo-Kalenjin-Luhya concord and divide Kenya right down the middle between the West and the East.

The last thing we need in Kenya is another Cold War dichotomy. Instead, Mr Kibaki should work to break down the barriers of isolationism that are forming around him and Mr Odinga.

Mr Odinga, on the other hand, has his work cut out for him. Since he believes he was robbed in the last election – and only got half a loaf to use his own language – he will be more than determined to succeed Mr Kibaki at State House. So Mr Odinga wants to enter State House as Mr Kibaki exits it in 2012.

You can see why the two men have diametrically opposed personal interests. But it is not the personal that is important here. Rather, the political is everything.

In Mr Odinga's case, the political may neatly turn out to be personal. Can you imagine that the stars could be in perfect alignment for Mr Odinga if he plays his cards right?

This is what I have in mind. Even though Mr Odinga and his supporters may want to use the new constitution as a political football to propel him to the State House, that is a temptation they should resist.

If they do not, then Mr Odinga will be subject to the slavish captivity of the Luo-Kalenjin-Luhya alliance that is likely to see the constitution as a document about succeeding Mr Kibaki.  This will have two detrimental effects on Mr Odinga's prospects for the State House in 2012.

Further tribalise

First, it will further tribalise him and his candidacy. Second, it will harden the West-East divide and lose him the presidency again. Mr Odinga's chances are only enhanced if he rises above tribal cabals and assumes the mantle of a nationalist.

If Mr Kibaki and Mr Odinga fail to smash the West-East divide, Kenya may very well be plunged into genocidal violence again in 2012.

That is because the East will most likely put up Vice-President Kalonzo Musyoka, or someone else from or acceptable to the East, as its presidential candidate against Mr Odinga, the presumptive candidate of the West.

Then we will replay 2007, but perhaps with terminal consequences for Kenya as we know it.

I hope that Kenyans will see through the hypocritical West-East mask that the political class has erected to its benefit, but to the detriment of Kenyans as one people. I suspect that whoever tears down this false mask successfully – be it Mr Odinga, Mr Musyoka or someone else – will unite Kenya and rise to the presidency in 2012.

But it will all depend on what roles key political actors play in the coming contest over a new democratic constitution.

Panel of experts

Prof Kivutha Kibwana, an acclaimed constitutional law scholar and former minister in the first Kibaki Administration, has now been tasked by the President with constitutional review.

My free advice to him is that he should proceed like the nationalist that he was when he fought the Moi regime in the 1990s.

He should reject the calls for a constituent assembly to write the constitution. We have been there and done that at Bomas. Besides, that will only give an opportunity to tribalists and intriguers to kill the project once more.

Instead, Prof Kibwana should advise Mr Kibaki and Mr Odinga to lead the formation of a small panel of experts to write a constitution based on the points of agreement in all prior draft constitutions for parliamentary approval and ratification in a national referendum.

Both Mr Odinga and Mr Kibaki must commit to support the draft of the panel of experts no matter their personal preference






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