Experts Discuss Georgia-Russia Conflict | |
Washington 11 August 2008 | |
deNesnera report - Listen (MP3)
Fighting between Russian and Georgian troops spread to western parts of Georgia Monday as international efforts to halt the clashes appeared to be picking up momentum. In this report from Washington, VOA Senior Correspondent André de Nesnera looks at what prompted the conflict in a very volatile region of the world.
Georgian refugees fleeing Gori, 11 Aug 2008 |
South Ossetia, along with another Georgian region - Abkhazia - declared independence from Georgia in the mid 1990s. Georgia's president Mikhail Saakashvili has vowed to bring both regions back into the fold.
Tensions have been rising in the area for months, as Russia increased its economic, commercial and political ties with the two breakaway regions. A series of military moves by both Georgia and Russia in the area helped increase tensions even further.
What was Saakashvili thinking?
Russian soldiers somewhere in South Ossetia, 11 Aug 2008 |
"He certainly picked the wrong time to move this way," said Marshall Goldman. "He was upset because the Russians were violating Georgian airspace. I think he thought maybe this was the best time to move. He certainly provoked the Russians. I think the Russians were really looking for an excuse - and he provided it to them."
Bush, Western leaders criticize move
Western leaders, including U.S. President George Bush say the Russian response has been disproportionate.
Robert Legvold from Columbia University says Moscow's strong military response goes far beyond its initial reason of defending its own citizens in the region.
"No longer is it merely to restore peace and stability in South Ossetia," said Robert Legvold. "I think it is to destroy Georgian influence in South Ossetia and indeed for the most part in Abkhazia itself - and prepare the way, if the Russians chose to go in that direction - for annexing South Ossetia itself. And in the case of Abkhazia, recognize the independence of Abkhazia and then work out a different relationship with it."
Analysts describe international response as 'lukewarm'
France's Foreign Minister Bernard Kouchner, along with his Finnish counterpart Alexander Stubb and Georgia's President Mikhail Saakashvili visiting the Georgian city of Gori, 11 Aug 2008 |
"The Europeans have been basically neutralized," he said. "In part, because they've become very dependent on Russian oil and gas, particularly gas. For example, in the case of Germany, [Russia] provides 42 percent of Germany's natural gas. So the Germans, who were probably expected to take the leading role here, have been neutralized."
US unable to halt conflict
Experts say the United States - a strong supporter of President Saakashvili - has also been unable to persuade both sides to end the conflict.
Robert Legvold says it could turn out to be a foreign policy debacle for the United States as it will not help Georgia militarily and is unable to restrain Moscow.
A woman in Gori, Georgia cries, after finding out that her child was killed, 11 Auf 2008 |
Legvold and others believe the international community must work to secure a cease-fire before the conflict in the region gets completely out of hand.
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